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The ‘dreaded’ penalty shootout is a common feature of knockout football tournaments and as every commentator in every shootout will 🗝 tell you, going out on penalties is a ‘terrible way to lose’.
Right as they may be, there’s a certain science 🗝 and pattern to penalty shootouts that not everyone is aware of, and knowing the numbers can help you turn a 🗝 profit if you’re sick enough to bet in-play on football’s equivalent of Russian Roulette.
Penalties by Numbers
Where there’s a significant sample 🗝 size of something, there’ll always be nerds to analyse the data and present it in a nice neat fashion for 🗝 less clever people to understand, and that’s exactly what several research groups have done over the years*.
An overwhelming feature of 🗝 the hand-waving analysis of penalty kicks by pundits and journalists comes down to simple cognitive bias. If a penalty is 🗝 saved, it’s invariably described as a poor kick. Similarly if the ball hits the back of the net, the kicker 🗝 is described as cool and calm under pressure. This is of course, rubbish, and variance or ‘luck’ to the great 🗝 un-hosed is the real factor at work here.